The dissatisfaction in Dhaka has been building up steadily. While India had given its full backing to the internationally-isolated Myanmar government on the Rohingya crisis, it had to face the reality that those statements are putting the Sheikh Hasina government in an impossible situation. Bangladesh has faced the political and security fallout of the largest influx of refugees ever since its independence.
Rising public anger in Bangladesh about Indiaâ€™s position and Dhakaâ€™s diplomatic overdrive was largely the reason why New Delhi had to modify its position on the Rohingya issue, to also acknowledge that there is now a refugee crisis.
Four days ago, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi stood next to Myanmarâ€™s de-facto leader in Nyay Pyi Taw and described India and Myanmar as â€œpartnersâ€ in their concern over the loss of lives due to â€œextremist violenceâ€ in Rakhine State.
The India-Myanmar joint statement issued a day later also reflected this position, mentioning only the violence by Rohingya militants. â€œIndia condemned the recent terrorist attacks in northern Rakhine State, wherein several members of the Myanmar security forces lost their lives,â€ said the bilateral document.
The Indian prime ministerâ€™s remarks were arguably in line with the previous Indian foreign policy position on the Rohingya issue â€“ which has become so aligned with Myanmar that they do not even use the term â€˜Rohingyaâ€™.
However, Indian statements made in Myanmar â€“ while Bangladesh had to face the fallout of thousands of refugees across the border â€“ led to complications.
On Saturday afternoon, Bangladesh high commissioner to India, Syed Muazzem Ali, met with Indian foreign secretary S. Jaishankar at his South Block office to specifically raise the Rohingya issue.
â€œI discussed bilateral issues and also apprised him of the latest situation regarding the influx of Rohingya refugees that have taken shelter in Bangladesh,â€ the veteran Bangladeshi diplomat told The Wire.
Per UN estimates, 300,000 Rohingya refugees have crossed over into Bangladesh in the last two weeks.
The latest round of the refugee influx resulted from a security crackdown after Rohingya insurgents attacked 30 police posts and an army base in Myanmarâ€™s restive Rakhine province.
â€œThese people are the citizens of Myanmar. Myanmar will have to make arrangements for their return to their home, where they could live in peace and dignity and with full democratic rights. The refugees can take shelter in any neighbouring country, but only temporarily. Long-term solution will always be settlement in Myanmar,â€ Ali said.
He added that regional neighbours should â€œuse their good offices to emphasise this point to the Myanmarese government, about the ground realityâ€.
When asked whether Bangladesh had taken note of Indian statements in support of Myanmar, Ali indicated that New Delhi should modify its position. â€œWhen the [India-Myanmar] joint statement was issuedâ€¦ the situation since then had taken a different turn in terms of influx of refugees. When the visit took place, the security situation was the main focus. Since then, the number of refugees have increased at an alarmingly fast pace. In the last two days, 100,000 people took shelter in Bangladesh,â€ Ali said.
Speaking a few hours after his afternoon meeting with Jaishankar, he told The Wire that he hoped to see India review its public position. â€œI hope that India can issue another statement updating their position on this issue,â€ said the Bangladesh high commissioner.
Later on Saturday night, India issued a new statement on the â€œsituation in Rakhine State in Myanmarâ€.
For the first time, India acknowledged that there is an ongoing refugee crisis, rather than just talk about violence perpetrated by Rohingya militants.
â€œIndia remains deeply concerned about the situation in Rakhine State in Myanmar and the outflow of refugees from that region.â€
The next three paragraphs of the press release issued by the Ministry of External Affairs recalled the Indian prime ministerâ€™s visit to Myanmar and the condemnation of the attack on the security forces in Rakhine State.
â€œDuring Prime Ministerâ€™s recent visit to Myanmar, he had expressed his concern at the casualties of security forces as well as other innocent lives. He had also urged a solution based on respect for peace, communal harmony, justice, dignity and democratic values,â€ the release said. There was also a reiteration that India and Myanmar had agreed that there would be â€œno justification under any pretextâ€ for terrorism.
Going beyond previous remarks, the latest Indian statement called for â€œrestraint and maturityâ€ and also stressed the need to focus on the â€œwelfare of the civilian populationâ€:
â€œWe would urge that the situation in Rakhine State be handled with restraint and maturity, focussing on the welfare of the civilian population alongside those of the security forces. It is imperative that violence is ended and normalcy in the State restored expeditiously.â€
Modiâ€™s visit and his statements in Myanmar had received wide coverage in Bangladesh, with a largely negative slant. The sudden torrent of refugees, coupled with the reports of human rights violations and the burning of entire villages, had put the Hasina government under pressure.
Over the last two days, the message received in South Block was that â€œvery strongâ€ public opinion was building up in Bangladesh on the Rohingya issue, which was spilling over into New Delhi-Dhaka ties.
According to sources, during the South Block meeting in Delhi, the Bangladesh high commissioner did not make a specific demand from India â€“ but the subtext was clear. â€œWe are addressing those concerns. The statement is the first step,â€ sources told The Wire.
The Rohingya issue has always cast a shadow on relations between Myanmar and Bangladesh, who share a 271-km-long border over the provinces of Chin and Rakhine. Bangladesh has seen the influx of Rohingya refugees before, but the current numbers were perhaps last seen only in the early 1990s.
The Rohingyas were stripped of their Burmese nationality by the 1974 Emergency Immigration Act and then the 1982 Citizenship Act.
In 1978, more than 200,000 Rohingya fled into Bangladesh following a security crackdown prior to a national census. Most of them returned home after a bilateral pact was signed under pressure from China, the US and the UN.
The next major exodus was in 1991, after another military operation, which led over 250,000 people to cross the border. Again faced with intense international pressure, Myanmar was forced to accept a repatriation arrangement, with most of the refugees returning by 1997.
The Bangladesh high commissioner also pointed out that Dhaka wanted for â€œour friends to help us for the sake of peace and security in our regionâ€. He implied that the security situation could worsen due to the refugees becoming ground zero for Islamist groups looking for fresh recruits.
â€œThe refugees sometimes fall in the wrong hands and it becomes worse. We have, of course, seen this kind of situation happen in other parts of the world,â€ Ali said.
The Bangladesh government is already grappling with a rise in the number of terror attacks, with ISIS and Al-Qaeda in the subcontinent already holding the riverine South Asian state in its cross-hairs. Therefore, hosting a large community that could be a pool for potential terror recruits, for an indefinite period, is not an attractive proposition from Dhakaâ€™s perspective.
The Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA), which claimed responsibility for the latest attack on Myanmar security personnel, was also behind the October 2016 attack on the Myanmar border police. According to the International Crisis Group, ARSA, which was previously known as Harakah al-Yaqin, was formed in the aftermath of the 2012 Rakhine riots.
As the scale of the recent Rohingya exodus became apparent, the murmurs in Bangladesh against Indiaâ€™s Rohingya position were growing louder and louder.
â€œI had been hearing a lot of voices from Bangladesh that India was not taking into consideration the problems that Bangladesh was facing â€“ humanitarian as well as security, the twin-headed beast that we have to deal with,â€ said Karim, a distinguished fellow at the Vivekananda India Foundation.
He pointed out that a particular belief â€“ that India was â€œprivilegingâ€ its strategic goals in Myanmar â€“ was gaining ground in Bangladesh. â€œIn a sense, Bangladeshâ€™s strategic problems are being sacrificed for the meeting of those goals. So people are saying that we have done so much for India in terms of meeting its security concerns but now that we have a security problem, India is shying away and focusing only its security,â€ said Karim.
The joint statement issued during Hasinaâ€™s visit to India in April this year singled out the â€œrobust bilateral security cooperationâ€ and also lauded â€œexemplary cooperationâ€ on checking smuggling and circulation of fake currency notes and narcotics.
â€œI will not be surprised if groups in Bangladesh will start saying, â€˜well Indians are not going to be sympathetic to us, lets us try to get China to do somethingâ€™,â€ Karim added. â€œSo China may say, â€˜we will help, but we have a price tagâ€™. Bangladesh should not be forced into that corner. That would be my message to friends in India.â€
India has been keen not to give more diplomatic capital to China than it already has with Myanmar over the Rohingya issue. Earlier this year, China had offered to mediate between Myanmar and Bangladesh. In its August 31 statement, China had expressed â€œsupportâ€ for Myanmarâ€™s â€œefforts in maintaining peace and stabilityâ€ in Rakhine and condemned â€œviolent attacksâ€.
Myanmar has had a love-hate relationship with Beijing, but the former cannot be indifferent to China as it has consistently extended the protection of its veto in the UN Security Council. In March this year, China, along with Russia, had stopped the introduction of a UNSC resolution against Myanmar. There is an expectation that similar events may take place again.
In the Bangladeshi media, statements by NDA ministers to deport 14,000 Rohingya were also referenced in articles about Indiaâ€™s Myanmar policy.
The Observer Research Foundationâ€™s Joyeeta Bhattacharjee noted that India was in a â€œcatch-22 situationâ€ on the Rohingya issue. Both Myanmar and Bangladesh are crucial for fighting insurgency in the northeast, as well as for Indiaâ€™s â€˜Look Eastâ€™ policy and connectivity projects. She pointed out that, faced with Indiaâ€™s support for Myanmar, Bangladesh could grow closer to the Islamic bloc of countries.
Maj. Gen (retd) Abdur Rashid from a Bangladesh based think tank agreed that there was a shift in Bangladesh â€“ though there is still a mixed response from the Muslim countries. â€œBangladeshâ€™s reliance is shifting towards UN, the West and Muslim members of ASEAN. Bangladesh expected quick and effective response from [the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation]. Turkey, Iran, Iraq responded but Saudi Arabia and its allies are still silent.â€ Turkeyâ€™s First Lady Emine Erdogan flew down in a special flight to take a look at the makeshift camps at Coxâ€™s Bazar on Friday.
The â€œdisregardingâ€ of the Rohingyasâ€™ plight was â€œreinforcing Islamic and anti-Indian rhetoric in Bangladesh,â€ added Rashid.
Karim hoped that India will use its â€œgood relationsâ€ to â€œbear downâ€ on Myanmar. â€œYou can argue for security to say that this has impact for Indiaâ€™s own security. So what is happening there will spill over for India,â€ he said. Kabir also noted that as long as Myanmar was â€œin denialâ€, there could be no solution â€“ and the international community, including India, had to show the mirror to Nay Pyi Taw.
Referring to Indiaâ€™s latest statement, Karim said that it was â€œeven-handedâ€, but also that he was not sure if it would go far enough to assuage Bangladeshi sentiments.
â€œMaybe I am being partisan, but I would emphasise the humanitarian aspect. This cannot be pure politics for personal advancement. There has to be some level of statesmanship and I see this statesmanship lacking solely worldwide,â€ he said.
The former diplomat cautioned that the Rohingya crisis could â€œalso have an impact on the election scenario in Bangladesh, which will be the hot potato nowâ€. Parliamentary polls are scheduled for 2018, which according to indications will not likely be a one-party election, like in 2013.
The opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party has been slamming the ruling coalition â€“ as well as India â€“ on the Rohingya issue for the past week. The civil society movement Gonojagoron Mancha announced that it will be organising a protest before the Myanmar embassy on Monday. On the other end of the spectrum, the Islamist group Hefazat-e-Islam announced that they will lay siege on the Myanmar embassy from September 19 if there was no end to the violence against the Rohingya.
The rumblings were gathering momentum as the Bangladesh government had remained relatively quiet, publicly, in the first ten days after the Rohingya started to stream across the border. The buzz in Dhaka was that the Bangladesh government was waiting to see the results of Modiâ€™s Myanmar trip.
The start of Bangladeshâ€™s diplomatic outreach seem to have coincided with Dhaka taking stock of the outcome of Modiâ€™s visit.
On Saturday, the UN sent out an appeal for $77 million for immediate humanitarian assistance to â€œscale upâ€ response to the Rohingya refugees. According to another Bangladesh media report, this will barely scratch the surface, with an economist calculating a cost of $1 billion per year to provide â€œbasic amenitiesâ€ to the refugees. Even if a repatriation pact is reached, the process to send back over 300,000 refugees to a safe environment in Myanmar could stretch for years.
The signs of the Bangladesh governmentâ€™s foreign policy shift towards internationalising the Rohingya issue has become clearer over the last few days. On Saturday evening, the ruling party, Awami League, affirmed that the government was planning to launch an international appeal.
On September 8, India disassociated itself from the Bali declaration of the World Parliamentary Forum of Sustainable Development after clauses were introduced on the Rohingya crisis. While the last-minute clauses were introduced by Turkey, it was further seconded by Bangladesh.
A day earlier, on September 7, the outgoing secretary general of BIMSTEC, a regional group, called on the Bangladesh prime minister for a farewell call. The nascent group, on which India has pinned a lot of hope as an alternate to SAARC, is seen as a platform for economic cooperation or connectivity. But unusually, Hasina chose to raise the political issue of the Rohingya crisis at this meeting.
Speaking to The Wire, Ali, the Bangladeshi envoy, said that the prime minister raising the Rohingya issue with the BIMSTEC secretary general was in the context of a review of the region.
When asked whether the Rohingya issue could cast a shadow on the group, Ali said, â€œBIMSTEC summit is going to be held in Kathmandu in November. So, I hope that by then, we would be in a position to take certain concrete steps to diffuse the current stepsâ€.
There was no doubt in the minds of diplomatic observers that Hasina had deliberately used the BIMSTEC platform to raise the Rohingya issue to signal the seriousness of the problem.
One of the solutions apparently drafted by Bangladesh is to create a â€˜safe zoneâ€™ for the Rohingya within Myanmar. According to Bangladeshi media reports, Dhaka wants India, Germany, the UN and the International Committee of the Red Cross to set up this zone.
Indian government sources, however, indicated that Bangladesh has not yet made this proposal to New Delhi formally.
Bangladeshâ€™s high commissioner to India implicitly confirmed that this specific proposal had not been submitted. However, he added that there were â€œother initiatives that we are thinking aboutâ€.
â€œThe UN [General Assembly] session is going to begin from the third week of this month and naturally, we coordinate closely with the Indian delegation at UNGA,â€ Ali said, adding that both India and Bangladesh remained in close diplomatic contact over the issue.
And New York is likely to become the stage for international diplomacy on the Rohingya issue, with Bangladesh and OIC countries lobbying for a strong signal on behalf of the UN. Aung San Suu Kyi is also likely to return to the UNGA for the second consecutive year. Meanwhile, the campaign by human rights groups targeting her for her â€œsilenceâ€ and the international communityâ€™s pressure on Myanmar will keep building up.